A regular stream of news stories suggests that the shift to electric cars will be more rapid than many people believe. In California, plug-in vehicle sales have topped a 10% market share, and Tesla is currently believed to hold a 1.7 percent share of the overall US market. Three out of every four car buyers in Norway, the world’s EV capital, are now opting for electric vehicles, with Tesla’s Model 3 being the most popular (of any kind). In Switzerland, which had previously lagged behind some other European markets, EVs and hybrids have accounted for 40% of all vehicle sales so far this year (and yes, Model 3 has been the most popular Electric Vehicle there too).
Industry analysts are steadily updating their projections as EV sales climb in important regions throughout the world. Most are pushing forward their expected dates for the conclusion of the Oil Age.
One of the legendary Big Four accounting firms, Ernst & Young, now forecasts that electric car sales in the United States, China, and Europe will overtake those of fossil-fueled vehicles five years earlier than previously forecast. According to EY’s latest prediction, fossil fuel-powered vehicles would account for fewer than 1% of worldwide sales by 2045, relegating them to the status of historical relics alongside sailboats and horses.
According to EY, Europe will set the pace, with EV sales expected to surpass those of traditional vehicles by 2028. By 2033, China will have caught up, and by 2036, the United States will have surpassed China in terms of EV sales.
“A combination of changing consumer perceptions, ambitious climate-focused policies, and technological advancement is set to forever reshape the landscape of vehicle purchasing,” stated Randall Miller, EY Leader in charge of Global Advanced Manufacturing & Mobility. “While the automobile industry has begun to embrace electrification more fully, the effect of this seismic transformation is coming sooner than many anticipated.”
The global automobile sector is quickly recovering from the pandemic’s sales downturn. According to the EY Mobility Consumer Index, nearly a third of non-vehicle owners planned to get a car in the following six months. A third of all potential purchasers said they would prefer an electric vehicle.
Ernst & Young utilizes an AI-based technology that appears to perform similarly to Tesla’s Autopilot to create its forecasts. “A neural network model that employs AI to examine many variables that impact demand and supply for mobility,” according to the EY Mobility Lens Forecaster. Variables reflecting consumer behavior, legislative developments, technological evolution, and manufacturers’ proclaimed strategies are among them.
To maintain pace with the ever-changing reality, the model is updated regularly with new market inputs. As the model’s predictions are compared to actual results, it modifies its calculations and lessons from any errors for future forecasts, effectively making it smarter and more precise over time.”